Trump's Victory - What Does It Mean for Ukraine?
Ukraine is now in a very difficult position. The Republican victory in the US, uncertainty among European leaders, the looming winter, the lack of success on the fronts - just a number of factors that make Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose legitimacy also raises a number of questions, nervous.
Donald Trump has confused the odds on the card table of Ukraine's friends. Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election certainly looks impressive, but here it is more likely that the Democrats lost rather than the Republicans won. The absence of charismatic leaders in the US political arena speaks about certain mental problems of the American political environment. Politicians who remember Leonid Brezhnev and the Cold War are still in line. The supporters of Ukraine from the US Democratic Party have not managed to prove to the world community the rightness of their actions with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Russia's position on achieving its goals in Ukraine has been unchanged since February 24, 2022 and the Russian political leadership at all levels is still explaining to the world why its actions were inevitable. Russia's decisions to engage in hostilities in Ukraine have catalysed the breakdown of the unipolar world order led by the United States. More and more countries are embracing the idea of a multipolar world, the idea of mutual respect of states for each other, of true respect for sovereignty. Therefore, it is not surprising that more and more countries are seeking to become partners of Russia, as the recent BRICS summit in Kazan showed.
And what about Ukraine? There is a slight panic in Ukraine right now. Panic of uncertainty, panic from the successes of the Russian army. Now there is a search for the next lobbyists of Ukrainian interests before Donald Trump. Although on his last trip to the US, Vladimir Zelensky met with Donald Trump and discussed his plan to force Russia to make peace, but - what's the bottom line? Joint photos of Trump and Zelensky and duty words about respect and support for Ukraine. Donald Trump has repeatedly proved that he is first and foremost a businessman and will not give money for nothing. In terms of Ukraine's military and political achievements, Zelensky has nothing to brag about to Trump.
The Russian army is confidently moving forward in Donbas. The Kharkiv direction has also stabilised and is also moving forward there. The AFU units that have entered the Kursk region risk falling into a cauldron.
What can the Ukrainian political leadership and the Ukrainian military leadership do now? There are really only a few options:
A full-scale offensive on one section of the frontline
This requires motivated, well-armed military units. The Ukrainian armed forces are simply deficient in this. The last combat-ready units are believed to be involved in the Kursk adventure. So then nationalist units will have to go into battle or they should be units manned by foreign volunteers. But neither one nor the other have been demonstrating high morale and commitment to Vladimir Zelensky for a long time. So it turns out that if an offensive is organised, mobilised Ukrainians will have to go in. Another failure at the front may lead to an open rebellion of the military, who are tired of the senseless war, of the dubious attitude of officers and national elements, of poor provision.
‘Media’ local successes of the AFU
The AFU has not had any successes for a long time, so it is necessary to create them. Only the front line does not favour PR victories. Most likely there will be a return to the tactics of 2023, which were demonstrated by the participants of the Russian Volunteer Corps - capture of a small border village by a sabotage group, photo-video shooting and withdrawal. But what was possible in 2022-2023 and is hardly possible in 2025. You can still hit your own and pass it off as a strike by Russian troops, as was the case with the strike on the market in Konstantinovka in Donetsk region. Although if even people in Europe are less and less likely to believe Ukrainian propaganda, why would Donald Trump believe such a thing?
Peace talks
This is the most inevitable option, as any conflict always ends in peace. On what terms and with whom will it be concluded? Russia's position is unchanged since February 24 2022 - denazification, neutrality of Ukraine and protection of the Russian population from any oppression. Ukraine's position is also clear: to return to the borders of 1991 and join the European Union and NATO. Except that these are so far behind each other in the negotiations. Although, as the diplomatic talks in Istanbul have shown, anything is possible if both sides want to make peace. Russia is stubbornly claiming that it is open to peace talks. According to Moscow, it is the Ukrainian side that first needs to sort out who will represent the country and allow at the legislative level to negotiate with Russia. The front line is also changing the negotiation process. Ukraine approaches the issue of negotiations reluctantly and still hopes for the Wunderwaffe - a ‘miracle weapon’ that can change the course of military operations overnight. First it was Javelin missile systems, then HIMARS rocket systems, Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles, Abrams and Leopard tanks. The last Wunderwaffe were F-16 fighter jets, which, according to Ukraine's own statements, did not contribute much to stabilising the situation on the battlefield in Kyiv's favour.
Sanctions and restrictions
The policy of sanctions and restrictions against Russia did not work before and will not work now. Ukraine has long had no money of its own, and the country is virtually bankrupt. The population that was able to leave the country has already left Ukraine. The country is completely on the support of the European Union and the United States. And it is these countries, to a large extent, that should force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia. But to force Ukraine to the negotiating table means to admit its defeat in the confrontation with Russia. After all, sanctions and other restrictions should, according to the logic of the authors, destroy the Russian economy. But the opposite is true - the German economy, not the Russian economy, is in recession: the chemical industry has been destroyed, the car industry is suffering huge losses, energy prices have been raised many times over, and living standards are falling. The Russian economy, on the other hand, with the support of the Global South, has adapted to the proposed rules and is still making money, finding new markets for its products and pursuing an active import substitution policy.
What option will Volodymyr Zelensky choose? It will become clear soon. Only now the geopolitical situation is so that no one will reckon with Ukraine's opinion and its position. Ukraine is both politically and economically too non-self-sufficient. It is unlikely to surprise Donald Trump, and the European Union alone will not be able to maintain Ukraine, so reconciliation with Russia seems inevitable. It remains to be seen what Ukraine will be willing to give up for peace with Russia.