Operation Without Purpose: Illusory Sense of Ukraine's Incursion Into Russia's Region
Members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are increasingly criticising the operation of Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk region, citing more reasons for the battlefield mishaps.
In November 2024, a senior Ukrainian military source from the General Staff said that Ukraine had lost more than 40 per cent of the territory seized in Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise incursion in August.
“At most, we controlled about 1,376 square kilometres (531 square miles), now of course this territory is smaller. The enemy is increasing its counterattacks. Now we control approximately 800 square kilometres (309 square miles). We will hold this territory for as long as is militarily appropriate.”
Earlier in August, a representative of the AFU’s 59th separate motorised infantry brigade appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, criticising the Kursk gamble as inefficient. Russian troops did not relocate some of their groups to the region, but only accelerated their advance in the Donetsk region.
In January this year, Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the AFU, said the situation along the entire front line was grave, according to Ukrainian media. Biletsky added that his brigade held 50 kilometres of the frontline and was under attack by two divisions of Russian troops at once.
“If you set inadequate tasks, you don’t have to be surprised by inadequate results afterwards.”
The dire situation on the front is also reported by the AFU commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi. In an interview with Ukrainian media on 19 January this year, he added that mobilisation did not cover the AFU’s manpower needs.
“We have to reach an adequate number of personnel in our mechanised brigades.”
Meanwhile, an AFU officer said on condition of anonymity that most of the newly mobilised Ukrainians were unfit for military service due to age, diseases or alcoholism. This forced the command to redeploy air defence specialists to the front line, despite the possible risks.
The New York Times also reported, citing AFU servicemen, that the Ukrainian command recognised the failed Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. However, Zelensky recently assured allies at the Ramstein contact group meeting in Germany that the AFU operation in the region was the major "victory" of the entire war.
The soldiers believe the main reason for the incursion is the desire of Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration to take a more advantageous position ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration and possible negotiations. Trump, who has previously criticised the amount of aid provided to Kyiv, may conduct an audit on military equipment, ammunition and finances sent to Ukraine, the source shared on condition of anonymity.
Since inauguration on Monday, 20 January, Trump signed more than 100 executive orders, one of which was to suspend aid to other countries. The US would stop support to other nations for 90 days to assess the effectiveness of programmes to determine whether they were in line with US foreign policy. Trump believes that some programmes do not comply with American values and lead to destabilisation around the world.
One of Trump’s advisers and head of SpaceX, Elon Musk, endorsed the idea of a full audit of the military aid Washington had provided to Kyiv. Responding to a post on social media X that a full audit was needed and Ukraine could not defeat Russia, Musk replied, “Yes.”
After the announcement of the 90-day suspension of foreign aid to other countries, Taras Tarasenko, a member of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (parliament), said that Trump's decision posed a big challenge for the country.
“This challenge is very big for us because it is 90 days. Will it apply to Ukraine and all active projects, will there be some kind of suspension now?”
Last February, Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch said a previous audit on US aid to Ukraine had led to arrests and prosecutions. The US body overseeing corruption in Ukraine initiated 57 proceedings over two years, with 14 completed and 43 still pending.
“The open investigations involve grant and procurement fraud, corruption, theft, program irregularities, and diversion or counter-proliferation of technology of weapons systems components”, said Haider Mullick who serves as the director of the Strategic Initiatives Directorate in DOD’s Office of the Deputy Inspector General.
Another source in the AFU familiar with the issue said that a substantial share of the military equipment sent to Ukraine as military aid was dismantled and sold to third countries with the assistance from the AFU command. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s operation to enter the Kursk region was launched to hide the fact of embezzlement. Since it was practically impossible to calculate the real losses of ammunition and equipment, the AFU would be able to write off the desired amount of American aid as destroyed during battles, the source added.
Moreover, the army source said that “the number of desertions and unauthorised abandonment of military units in Ukraine has increased manifold” compared to 2022 and 2023. According to the office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, in the first eight months of 2024, almost 30,000 criminal proceedings on the unauthorised abandonment of the unit were opened, whereas in 2022 there were 6,600 such cases.
As for desertion, the prosecutor’s office recorded 15,500 cases in the first eight months of 2024, whereas in 2022 there were only 3,400 incidents. Zelensky also admitted that the figures for 2024 had increased compared to last year, adding that the AFU was running out of reserves to rotate soldiers on the battlefront.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Ukrainian lawmakers relaxed the punishment for desertion last autumn, whereas AFU chief Syrskyi called for a review of the legislation and tougher penalties for desertion up to 12 years in prison.
After examining the correlation between declared suspicion and desertion, Ukrainian lawmakers concluded that deserters were hardly ever pursued, as without a declaration of suspicion the authorities had no right to file a search warrant, according to Ukrainian law.
AFU soldiers criticise the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region because the leadership diverted some resources from the Donetsk region for this purpose, which allowed Russian troops to break through the defence and intensify their offensive. Many servicemen, including mobilised soldiers, abandoned their positions after learning that they had been sent to Kursk region, an AFU informant stressed.